The debate about the dynamics of the art markets in London and Paris has intensified in recent months, and especially in recent weeks during Frieze London and Art Basel Paris. London has dominated the European market for many decades. Are we witnessing a reversal in favour of Paris, partly due to Brexit and a less favourable tax environment in the UK? I understand the appeal of this binary debate, allowing everyone to share their views. However, an analysis of the data leads us to a different conclusion: the rivalry between London and Paris is largely a false debate—a “nontroversy”—for three main reasons.
Paris is progressing, but London still leads
Figures from economist Clare McAndrew’s annual art market reports for Tefaf and Art Basel confirm an erosion of the UK’s share of the global art market, which fell from 21% between 2016 and 2020 to 17% between 2021 and 2023, while France’s share slightly increased, from 7% to 8%. This trend can be attributed to the consequences of Brexit, which has complicated the sale of works in London from European Union countries. Many international galleries have opened branches in Paris, often in addition to their spaces in London. Another important event is the establishment of Art Basel at the Grand Palais.
However, the erosion of the UK’s market share began well before Brexit, as early as the mid-2000s. Moreover, there has not been a radical shift in the hierarchy of market centres, as there was between 2007 and 2010, when China overtook the UK. London remains the dominant marketplace in Europe in terms of transaction value.
The most expensive modern or contemporary works continue to be sold at auction in London. In June 2023 a Gustav Klimt painting sold in London for £85.3m, following Francis Bacon triptychs for $84.6m in 2020 and £40.6m in 2022, a René Magritte painting for £59.4m in 2022 and a Roy Lichtenstein painting for $46.2m in 2020. London continues to maintain its reputation as an international platform for high-value transactions, in particular for works above $5m or $10m.
A negative-sum game for Europe
In truth, the real issue is not the rivalry between London and Paris, but the decline of all European centres in the face of American dominance and the rise of Asia. Over the past decade, the US has accounted for 40% to 45% of the art market, while China has risen from 5% in 2004 to 20% in the past decade. Since 2019 the combined share auction sales in London and Paris has declined from 24% to 21% of sales globally. At Christie’s, Impressionist, Modern and contemporary art auctions in London and Paris now account for only about 25% of global annual sales, compared to 35% to 40% a decade ago.
More complementary than competitive
With the exception of certain categories where there is real competition, such as Modern art, each city retains its specific strengths. London remains essential for Old Masters (excluding French paintings), Impressionism, antiquities, Islamic art and Modern and contemporary Arab art. Paris, on the other hand, is the world capital of African and Oceanic art and dominates Europe in Old Master drawings, Asian art and design. In the decorative arts, the sale of prestigious collections has multiplied in Paris, as demonstrated by the sale of the Hubert de Givenchy collection in 2022.
Since Brexit, few specialist areas have migrated from one city to the other. At Christie’s, only the annual sale of Italian contemporary art has moved to Paris, because most of the works come from Italy and selling them in London would incur export red tape and then import VAT for buyers based in Italy, which a sale in Paris would not.
Each city has its unique strengths. Few collectors or art lovers favour one over the other. The success of Frieze, followed this year by Art Basel Paris, underscores this point: both fairs excelled presenting complementary rather than competing propositions, attracting collectors and art overs from all over the world.
In the next few years, I doubt this situation will change. For one city to radically outshine the other, the context would have to change, particularly in terms of taxation. However, the current fiscal constraints in France and the UK make it unlikely that direct or indirect taxes on the art market will be reduced. In this context, it would be more prudent for market players to strengthen their collaboration and take advantage and leverage the strengths between the two cities in order to better face the increasingly fierce international competition. At Christie’s we are committed to this policy and ensure that our teams in London and Paris work closely together.
• Guillaume Cerutti is the chief executive of Christie's. He is based in London.