The art market is certainly not shutting down completely. Smaller fairs keep popping up regionally—witness Arco’s new fair in Lisbon and Independent’s in Brussels—and buying at auction still seems to be a popular pastime. But at the very high end, November’s sales in New York, which brought in over $2.2bn in two weeks, were nonetheless a sobering sign that seven evening auctions are as much as the market can swallow.
The up-and-up trajectory had already begun to slow in 2013, with the higher-priced works masking a sluggish market beneath, according to the art economist Clare McAndrew. Her estimates for 2015 are yet to be compiled, but while she does not expect a “major drop” in total sales (€51bn in 2014), she says that it could be down slightly this year. She is less concerned about oversupply, although she says this has probably occurred “in parts of the market in China, where the market has been flooded a little”.
Meanwhile, stock markets are being disrupted globally and the feeling is that the macroeconomic backdrop has worsened. Here’s to the calm after the storm.